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Alright, so the World Cup finally kicks off for the US tomorrow night, and they open Group D against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in LA. Vegas has the US as the favorite at +105 on the moneyline, with Paraguay way out at +320 and the draw at +255, and honestly that line being that close tells you something. The Americans have been shaky lately. They've played four matches in 2026 and lost three of them, to Germany, Portugal and Belgium, with their only win being a 3-2 result over Senegal.
Meanwhile Paraguay is exactly the kind of team you don't want in an opener. They come in unbeaten in eight matches, with wins over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, and gave up just 14 goals across all 18 South American qualifiers. They're going to sit deep, frustrate you, and wait for one counterattack. The good news for the US is they've seen this team recently and beat Paraguay 2-1 in a friendly last November.
My read? The US should win this, but don't expect fireworks. The total is set at just 2.5 goals, and Paraguay barely scores. They've averaged just 0.78 goals in their recent matches, and they're banged up too since their main creative guy Julio Enciso has a muscle injury and will likely miss the opener. One thing to watch is set pieces. Paraguay isn't particularly big at the back and gave up six set-piece situations per game in qualifying, so a McKennie or Balogun header off a Pulisic corner feels like a real possibility.
I'd lean US 1-0 or 2-1 in a grinder, with Pochettino's guys needing one moment of quality from Pulisic to break it open. The pressure of being the host nation is real, but losing this one at home would be a disaster, and I think they know it.
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